I dont believe that the term double-dip recession is accurate the recession is ongoing, it never actually got significantly better for working class, middle class, or recent graduates looking to enter the workforce. Even if corporate earnings stabilize or rise there is no direct link to improvement in the economy for the people if inflation exists and jobs remain scarce then people are left out of participating in the economy and in any limited recovery. Just because things arent as bad as they were or could be doesnt equal a triumphant economic recovery.
What helped get the US economy away from the recession in 1992 was job growth from the Telecom & Internet boom. Until weve got an industry with incredible momentum like the Dot Com period I dont see what will lift the US economy out of a protracted decline.
I took a look at some Economic Indicators and Ad Spending Trends:
Auto, Retail, Packaged Goods and Cosmetics and Beauty Aids Drive Total Ad Growth
· Steep declines in ad spending continue to impact Business Services, Motion Pictures and Transportation & Travel industries
In YTD 2010 ad spending remains 11% or $8.3 billion below 2008 levels
Source: Kantar Media (formerly known as TNS Media Intelligence)
· All dollars reflect unadjusted, gross reported spending, which is calculated using a fixed cost methodology that measures the relative value of an advertisers media schedule, not the absolute value
· Reported spending does not factor for the types of buy (upfront, scatter, DR)
· Make goods, bonus spots, and added value programs are all counted as paid advertising
· Reported spending methodology treats all advertisers equally
· The unemployment rate was at 9.5%, representing 14.5 million people unemployed
The employed to population ratio was 58% in July 2010 compared to 63% in 2007
CBS News interviewed a Marine who asked to be re-deployed to combat because after he served his tour of duty and returned to the US he couldnt find an employer to hire him. He felt he had no choice but to return to combat to support his family.
When you factor in underemployment, folks who have lost their jobs and returned to the workforce with lower income, jobs that lack a benefits package, and folks who have withdrawn from the job market/given up then we may consider that a more realistic unemployment or underprivileged measurement could be 17% to 29%. Employment itself is not economic recovery it is a part of recovery when it can be classified as a good job.
80% — The percentage of 2009 college graduates who moved back home with their parents after graduation, up from 67 percent in 2006. Source: CollegeGrad.com
*Updated 9/16/2010: CBS evening news reports:
– The number of people in poverty increased by approximately 4 million from a year ago.
– 5 Million people are having trouble making their mortgage payments.
– An estimated 2.5 million homeowners could be in foreclosure by the end of the year.
– Banks have taken possession of 900,000 homes, only a third of which are on the market for re-sale because if the full housing inventory was to be listed on the market it would lower home prices further.
– Applications for new home loans decreased buyers have faced tougher bank lending restrictions/requirements.
I would add that a proper economic recovery calculation must include the millions of people who have been added to the poverty measurement over the last few years, so that, when they rise out of poverty to their former financial status there will be an accurate measure of economic recovery. This could take ten to twenty years.
It seems foolish claim there is or will be a recovery any time soon. Weve run out of people and the necessary conditions to fill the pyramid.
